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Released: Tuesday, March 13, 2012

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for the U.K. increased 0.9 percent in January, after declines of 0.5 percent in December and 0.6 percent in November. All components made positive contributions to the index this month. The index stands at 103.1 (2004=100).

Said Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board Senior Economist for Europe: “The sharp increase in the LEI for the United Kingdom, its first increase in six months, helps to reverse at least part of the recent decline in the index, suggesting that a stabilization in the downward trend of the LEI may be underway. The recovery in risk appetite on financial markets which started in December has been followed by an improvement in business and consumer confidence in January. Together with the modest improvement in current economic conditions, the development of the LEI is consistent with the outlook of a short and shallow contraction for the British economy.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, was unchanged in January after increasing 0.2 percent in December and remaining unchanged in November. Three of four components made positive contributions to the index this month. The index stands at 102.5 (2004 = 100).

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. include:

Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)

Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)

Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)

FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)

Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)

Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)

Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)

 

Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and nine other countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2012 indicator releases:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/

For more information:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

For full press release:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=2

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.  www.conference-board.org.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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