Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - July 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, December 9, 2011
Next month's release will incorporate annual benchmark revisions to the composite indexes. These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data. The revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for the U.K. decreased 0.4 percent in both October and September, after decreasing 0.5 percent in August. Three of the seven components made positive contributions to the index in October. The index stands at 103.1 (2004=100).
Said Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board Senior Economist for Europe: “The LEI for the United Kingdom fell for a third consecutive month in October. The slight improvement in stock prices did not offset the further and broad based deterioration of confidence measures. Coupled with the persistent weakness in the LEI, current economic conditions suggest that the British economy is at risk of following the Euro Area toward a contraction of economic activity in the short term.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in October, after remaining unchanged in September and decreasing 0.1 percent in August. The index stands at 102.4 (2004 = 100).
The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. include:
Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)
FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)
Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)
Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)
Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and nine other countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2011 indicator releases:
For more information: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm
For full press release: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=2
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.