Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - July 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, October 12, 2011
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for the U.K. decreased 0.5 percent in August, after increasing 0.3 percent in July and remaining unchanged in June. Three of the seven components made positive contributions to the index in August. The index stands at 104.0 (2004=100).
Said Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board Senior Economist for Europe: “A broad based deterioration of confidence led to a decline in the LEI for the United Kingdom in August, pointing to a further slowing of economic conditions ahead. The worsening of the external environment – reflected in the recent plunge in the LEI for the Euro Area – may add to an already weak domestic demand outlook. If exports or the more accommodative monetary policy fail to support growth, current economic conditions may deteriorate further and lead to a new downturn.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, remained unchanged in August, after decreasing 0.1 percent in July and declining 0.1 percent in June. The index stands at 102.3 (2004 = 100).
The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. include:
Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)
FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)
Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)
Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)
Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and nine other countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2011 indicator releases:
For more information: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm
For full press release: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=2
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.