Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - July 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, December 9, 2010
Next month's release will incorporate annual benchmark revisions to the composite indexes. These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data. The revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. increased 0.4 percent in October to 105.1 (2004=100), following gains of 0.5 percent in September and 0.5 percent in August. Six of the seven components made positive contributions to the index in October.
Download a PDF of the press release with graph and summary table.
Said Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board Senior Economist for Europe: “The latest readings of the LEI for the United Kingdom suggest the expected slowdown – resulting from the fading of recovery effects and the phasing in of budget cuts – may be gradual in the short term. The financial sector problems in Ireland – to which the United Kingdom has a significant exposure – are a reminder of the persisting downside risks surrounding the outlook for 2011.”
The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. has been rising since April 2009, though its six-month growth rate has continued to slow in recent months. Despite this slowdown, the index is 0.3 percent above its most recent peak in June 2007. At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, increased by 0.1 percent in October, after remaining unchanged in September and increasing 0.1 percent in August. The index now stands at 103.1 (2004 = 100).
The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. include:
Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)
FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)
Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)
Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)
Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and nine other countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2010 indicator releases:
For more information: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm
For full press release: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=2
About The Conference Board
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