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Released: Friday, November 12, 2010

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. increased 0.3 percent in September to 103.5 (2004=100), following gains of 0.1 percent in August and 0.2 percent in July. Four of the seven components made positive contributions to the index in July.

Download a PDF of the technical notes for underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs.

Download a PDF of the press release with graph and summary table.

Said Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board Senior Economist for Europe: “Though the LEI for the United Kingdom continued to increase in September, its growth rate has slowed in recent months, suggesting that the deceleration in economic activity should remain gradual in the short term. However, the further decline in consumer confidence highlights the risk of weak and volatile growth in 2011.”

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. has been rising since April 2009, though its six-month growth rate has fallen rapidly and the weaknesses among its components have become more widespread than the strengths in recent months.  At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, increased by 0.1 percent in September, after remaining unchanged in August and increasing 0.1 percent in July. The index now stands at 103.0 (2004 = 100).

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. include:

Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)

Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)

Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)

FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)

Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)

Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)

Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)

 

Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and nine other countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2010 indicator releases:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/

For more information: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

For full press release:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=2

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.  www.conference-board.org.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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