Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - July 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Monday, August 13, 2007
The Conference Board announced today that both the leading and coincident indexes for the U.K increased 0.2 percent in June.
- The leading index increased slightly again in June, maintaining the upward trajectory it has exhibited over the past year. The six-month growth rate of the leading index increased to a 2.2 percent rate (a 4.5 percent annual rate), from the 1.0 — 1.5 percent rate (about a 2.5 percent annual rate) at the end of 2006. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have continued to be widespread in recent months.
- The coincident index also increased slightly in June, keeping it on a moderately rising trend since mid-2006. Moreover, the strengths among the coincident indicators have also become more widespread in the last several months. Real GDP increased at a 3.0 percent average annual rate in the first half of 2007 (including a 3.3 percent rate in the second quarter). During the last seven quarters, real GDP growth has stayed within the range of 2.5 — 3.5 percent annual rate. The recent behavior in the leading and coincident indexes suggests that the economy is likely to grow at a faster pace in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the seven components that make up the leading index increased in June. The positive contributors — from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were productivity for the whole economy*, consumer confidence, volume of expected output, and operating surplus of corporations. The negative contributors — from the largest contributor to the smallest — were yield Spread and stock prices. Order book volume remained unchanged in June.
With the 0.2 percent increase in June, the leading index now stands at 129.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in May and increased 0.5 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the leading index increased 2.2 percent, with all eight components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All four components that make up the coincident index increased in June. The positive contributors — from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were employment *, real household disposable income*, retail sales, and industrial production.
With the increase of 0.2 percent in June, the coincident index now stands at 118.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in both May and April. During the six-month period through June, the coincident index increased 0.4 percent, with all four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY:The data series used by The Conference Board to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. ET on August 10, 2007. Some series are estimated as noted below.
* Series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are productivity of the whole economy, and operating surplus of corporations. Series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are employment and real household disposable income.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.