Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - July 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, January 11, 2007
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for the U.K increased 0.1 percent, and the coincident index increased 0.2 percent in November.
- The leading index rose slightly in November, and October's slight decrease was revised upward to no change. The six-month growth rate of the leading index increased slightly after slowing somewhat in the third quarter; it grew 1.5 percent from May to November (about a 3.0 percent annual rate). Large negative contributions from the volume of expected output in the past two months have been offset by positive contributions from productivity, stock prices, and other components, as the strengths among the leading indicators have been more widespread in recent months.
- The coincident index increased again in November. The index continues at a moderate but steady growth, with a six-month (annualized) growth rate of 1.0 percent. The largest positive contributor to the gain remains in employment, and strengths continue to be more widespread than weaknesses among the coincident indicators. At the same time, real GDP growth has been fluctuating in the 2.5 to 3.0 percent annual percent range in the last four quarters (including a 3.0 percent rate in the third quarter of 2006). The current behavior of both composite indexes suggests moderate economic growth should continue in the near future.
LEADING INDICATORS. Six of the eight components that make up the leading index increased in November. The positive contributors — from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were productivity for the whole economy*, stock prices, order book volume, operating surplus of corporations, the fixed interest price index and consumer confidence. The negative contributors — from the largest contributor to the smallest — were volume of expected output and new orders for engineering industries*.
With the 0.1 percent increase in November, the leading index now stands at 138.6 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in October and increased 0.3 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the leading index increased 1.5 percent, with six of the eight components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All four components that make up the coincident index increased in November. The positive contributors — from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were employment *, real household disposable income*, retail sales, and industrial production.
With the increase of 0.2 percent in November, the coincident index now stands at 117.2 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in October and remained unchanged in September. During the six-month period through November, the coincident index increased 0.5 percent, with three of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY: The data series used by The Conference Board to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. ET on January 10, 2007. Some series are estimated as noted below.
* Series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are new orders in engineering industries, productivity of the whole economy, and operating surplus of corporations. Series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are employment and real household disposable income.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.