Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - July 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, March 15, 2006
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for the U.K increased 0.2 percent, and the coincident index was unchanged in January.
- The leading index increased slightly in January, and there were large upward revisions to the leading index from September to December, as actual data for total gross operating surplus component for the fourth quarter of 2005 became available. With January’s gain, the growth rate of the leading index has been fluctuating around a zero percent annual rate in recent months, slightly up from the negative 1.0-2.0 percent rate in the third quarter of 2005. In addition, the strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators have been somewhat balanced in recent months.
- The coincident index was unchanged in January, and it has been on a slightly rising trend since mid-2005. At the same time, real GDP grew at an average of 2.3 percent annual rate in the second half of 2005, up from a 1.5 percent average rate the first half of the year. The recent behavior in the leading index suggests that the economy is likely to continue growing at a moderate pace in the near term.
Leading Indicators. Five of the eight components that make up the leading index increased in January. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were stock prices, the fixed interest price index, operating surplus of corporations, productivity for the whole economy*, and consumer confidence. Order book volume, new orders for engineering industries*, and volume of expected output declined in January.
With the 0.2 percent increase in January, the leading index now stands at 133.6 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index was unchanged in December and declined 0.1 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the leading index increased 0.5 percent, with four of the eight components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
Coincident Indicators.Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in January. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were employment*, real household disposable income*, and industrial production. Retail sales declined in January.
Holding steady in January, the coincident index now stands at 116.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in both December and November. During the six-month period through January, the coincident index increased 0.3 percent, with three of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
Data Availability.The data series used by The Conference Board to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. ET on March 13, 2006. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are new orders in engineering industries, productivity of the whole economy, and operating surplus of corporations. Series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are employment and real household disposable income.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.