Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - July 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, November 15, 2005
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for the U.K increased 0.3 percent, and the coincident index increased 0.2 percent in September.
- The leading index increased again in September, the third consecutive increase. With September’s increase, the leading index continued to recover from the declines in the April--June period but its growth over the last six months (March to September) is still slightly below zero. The strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators have been relatively balanced in recent months.
- The coincident index also increased in September, and it remains on a flat to slightly rising trend since mid 2004. At the same time, real GDP grew at a 1.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter (following a 1.5 percent average rate in the first half of 2005), down from a 2.5 percent average rate in 2004. The behavior of the leading index in recent months suggests that economic growth is likely to remain sluggish in the near term.
Leading Indicators.Five of the eight components that make up the leading index increased in September. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were volume of expected output, stock prices, productivity for the whole economy*, operating surplus of corporations*, and new orders for engineering industries*. Order book volume and the fixed interest price index declined, while consumer confidence was unchanged in September.
With the 0.3 percent increase in September, the leading index now stands at 134.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in August and increased 0.5 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the leading index declined 0.1 percent, with five of the eight components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 62.5 percent).
Coincident Indicators.All four components that make up the coincident index increased in September. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were employment*, retail sales, real household disposable income*, and industrial production.
With the increase of 0.2 percent in September, the coincident index now stands at 116.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index was unchanged in August and increased 0.1 percent in July. During the six-month period through September, the coincident index increased 0.8 percent, with all four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
Data Availability.The data series used by The Conference Board to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. ET on November 15, 2005. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are new orders in engineering industries, productivity of the whole economy, and operating surplus of corporations. Series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are employment and real household disposable income.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.