Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - July 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Monday, March 14, 2005
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for the U.K. increased 0.1 percent and coincident index increased 0.2 percent in January.
- The leading index increased slightly in January following no change in December, which keeps the leading index on a flat to slightly rising trend since the middle of 2004. This is down from 6.0 to 7.0 percent growth (annual rate) reached in early 2004, but the recent sluggishness has been concentrated in one component (the volume of expected output), while most other components have continued increasing.
- The coincident index increased again in January, keeping it on a steadily rising trend. At the same time, real GDP growth slowed to a 2.6 percent annual rate in the second half of 2004, down from a 3.5 percent average rate over the previous four quarters. The behavior of the leading index in recent months suggests that the economy should continue growing at or perhaps slightly below this rate in the near term.
Leading Indicators.Five of the eight components that make up the leading index increased in January. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were consumer confidence, stock prices, productivity for the whole economy*, operating surplus of corporations*, and the fixed interest price index. Volume of expected output, order book volume, and new orders for engineering industries* declined in January.
With the 0.1 percent increase in January, the leading index now stands at 133.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in December and declined 0.1 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the leading index held steady, with four of the eight components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
Coincident Indicators.Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in January. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were employment*, retail sales, and real household disposable income*. Industrial production declined in January.
With the 0.2 percent increase in January, the coincident index now stands at 115.6 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in December and increased 0.2 percent in November. During the six-month period through January, the coincident index increased 0.8 percent, with three of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
Data Availability.The data series used by The Conference Board to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. ET on March 11, 2005. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are new orders in engineering industries, productivity of the whole economy, and operating surplus of corporations. Series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are employment and real household disposable income.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.