Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - July 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, November 10, 2004
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for the U.K. increased 0.4 percent, and the coincident index increased 0.2 percent in September.
- The leading index increased in September, led by consumer confidence and stock prices. August’s originally reported small increase was revised down to a slight decline, but there was also a large upward revision to July as actual data for new orders in engineering industries became available. Despite this month’s gain, the growth rate of the leading index has slowed in recent months to about a 3.0-4.0 percent annual rate, down from 6.0-7.0 percent growth reached earlier this year.
- The coincident index also increased in September, and has been on a flat to slightly rising trend since the beginning of 2003. At the same time, real GDP growth slowed to a 1.5 percent annual rate (preliminary) in the third quarter, down from a 3.6 percent average rate over the previous four quarters. The current behavior of the leading index suggests that economic growth will probably pick up from the third quarter’s below-trend growth but stay lower than last year’s above-trend growth.
Leading Indicators.Five of the eight components that make up the leading index increased in September. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were stock prices, consumer confidence, productivity for the whole economy*, operating surplus of corporations*, and the fixed interest price index. Volume of expected output and new orders for engineering industries* declined, while order book volume held steady in September.
With the 0.4 percent increase in September, the leading index now stands at 134.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in August and increased 0.3 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the leading index increased 1.6 percent, with four of the eight components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 56.3 percent).
Coincident Indicators.Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in September. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were employment*, retail sales, and real household disposable income*. Industrial production declined in September.
With the 0.2 percent increase in September, the coincident index now stands at 115.0 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in August and remained steady in July. During the six-month period through September, the coincident index increased 0.7 percent, with three of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
Data Availability.The data series used by The Conference Board to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. ET on November 9, 2004. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are new orders in engineering industries, productivity of the whole economy, and operating surplus of corporations. Series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are employment and real household disposable income.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.