Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - July 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, September 15, 2004
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for the U.K. fell 0.1 percent and the coincident index increased 0.1 percent in July.
- The leading index fell slightly in July following a downward revised small decline in June, but there were also upward revisions to the previous several months. As a result, the growth of the leading index has slowed into the 3.0-4.0 percent range (annual rate), down slightly from 4.0-5.0 percent earlier this year.
- The coincident index increased slightly again in July, keeping it on a steady upward trend. At the same time, real GDP continued increasing at about a 3.5 percent annual rate during the first half of 2004. The recent behavior of the leading index suggests that this rate of economic growth is likely to persist in the near term, with some risk of slightly slower growth.
Leading Indicators.Three of the eight components that make up the leading index increased in July. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were order book volume, productivity for the whole economy*, and operating surplus of corporations*. Volume of expected output, stock prices, consumer confidence, the fixed interest price index, and new orders for engineering industries* declined in July.
With the 0.1 percent decline in July, the leading index now stands at 132.6 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.2 percent in June and increased 1.0 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the leading index increased 1.1 percent, with four of the eight components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
Coincident Indicators.Two of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in July. The positive contributors – from the larger positive contributor to the smaller – were employment* and real household disposable income*. Retail sales and industrial production declined in July.
With the 0.1 percent increase in July, the coincident index now stands at 114.6 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in both June and May. During the six-month period through July, the coincident index increased 0.4 percent, with three of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 87.5 percent).
Data Availability.The data series used by The Conference Board to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. ET on September 14, 2004. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are new orders in engineering industries, productivity of the whole economy, and operating surplus of corporations. Series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are employment and real household disposable income.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.