Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - July 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, August 11, 2004
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for the U.K. was unchanged and the coincident index increased 0.2 percent in June.
- The leading index was unchanged in June, but May’s increase was revised up significantly as actual data for new orders for engineering industries became available. The leading index continued increasing during the first half of 2004 at or slightly below the growth rate during the second half of last year, and this strength continued to be widespread.
- The coincident index increased slightly in June, keeping it on a steady upward trend. Correspondingly, real GDP has been increasing at a 3.5 to 4.0 percent average rate over the past year, including a preliminary 3.8 percent increase in the second quarter of 2004. The continued strength in the leading index suggests that this rate of economic growth is likely to persist in the near term, with some risk of slightly slower growth.
Leading Indicators.Four of the eight components that make up the leading index increased in June. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were new orders for engineering industries*, order book volume, stock prices, and productivity for the whole economy*. Consumer confidence and the fixed interest price index declined, while volume of expected output and operating surplus of corporations* held steady in June.
Holding steady in June, the leading index now stands at 132.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.8 percent in May and decreased 0.5 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the leading index increased 2.0 percent, with four of the eight components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
Coincident Indicators.Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in June. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were retail sales, employment*, and real household disposable income*. Industrial production declined in June.
With the 0.2 percent increase in June, the coincident index now stands at 114.6 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in May and increased 0.2 percent in April. During the six-month period through June, the coincident index increased 0.6 percent, with all four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
Data Availability.The data series used by The Conference Board to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. ET on August 11, 2004. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are new orders in engineering industries, productivity of the whole economy, and operating surplus of corporations. Series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are employment and real household disposable income.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.