Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - July 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, July 24, 2002
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for the U.K. increased 0.2 percent, and the coincident index increased 0.1 percent in June.
- The strength in the leading index is persistent with seven consecutive months of increases and widespread as its six-month diffusion index, which measures the percentage of components rising over the six-month period, registering high above 50 percent.
- In June, stock prices' sharp decrease hindered what could have been a more robust leading index. The negative influence brought on by the stock market was countered by increases in export orders, other components in the financial sector, and housing starts.
- The industrial production seems to be bottoming out with a modest decline this month. If the industrial sector continues to bottom out, the coincident index is likely to make stronger gains buoyed by historically low unemployment, rising income, and expanding retail sales.
Leading Indicators. Four of the eight components that make up the leading index increased in June. The most significant increases - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are export order book volume, inverted bond yields, money supply*, and housing starts*. Three components decreased in June. The most significant decreases - in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - are stock prices, new orders for engineering industries*, and change in inventories*. Only change in consumer confidence made no contribution in June. (For details see Data Availability section and Tables).
With the 0.2 percent increase in June, the leading index now stands at 117.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in May and increased 0.6 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the leading index increased 2.9 percent, and six of the eight components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 81.3 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Two of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in June. The most significant increases - in order from the larger positive contributor to the smaller - are real households' disposable income* and retail sales. The inverted unemployment rate remained unchanged in June, and industrial production* decreased.
Increasing 0.1 percent in June, the coincident index now stands at 113.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in May and increased 0.4 percent in April. During the six-month period through June, the coincident index increased 0.5 percent, with three of the four components making advances (diffusion index, six-month span equals 87.5 percent).
The data series used by The Conference Board to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. ET on July 22, 2002. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes:Series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are the CPI deflator for money supply, changes in inventories, new orders in engineering industries, and housing starts. Series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are real household disposable income and industrial production.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.