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Released: Thursday, September 26, 2013

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India decreased 1.6 percent in August. The index stands at 175.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in July and a 1.5 percent decrease in June. Three of the eight components contributed positively to the index in August.

“The LEI for India fell in August, continuing its downward trend which started in early 2011,” said Jing Sima, Economist at The Conference Board. “While bank credit and exports have improved recently, the financial indicators, as well as capital goods production, have declined. Persistent and widespread weakness in the LEI in the last six months continue to push the growth rate further into negative territory, and offer little hope for a sustainable acceleration in economic growth in the near term.”

“The immediate pressures from an unfavorable international monetary climate, together with long-standing structural and domestic policy challenges are holding back recovery in investment and industrial production,” said Bart van Ark, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “The Indian economy is currently falling significantly below its long-term growth potential, and there are no quick fixes to get back to faster growth.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for India, which measures current economic activity, decreased 0.6 percent in August to 205.0 (2004 = 100), following a 4.0 percent increase in July and a 1.5 percent decrease in June. Two of the four components contributed positively to the index in August.

The Conference Board LEI for India aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in India. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India was launched in September 2013. Plotted back to April 1990, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of India. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India include:

Interest Rate Spread (10-Year Government Bond minus 91-Day Treasury Bill) (RBI)
Stock Prices: SENSEX Average (Bombay Stock Exchange Limited)
Real effective exchange rate index, 36 countries (RBI)
Real Money Supply: M3 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector (RBI)
Merchandise Exports, f.o.b. (Ministry of Commerce and Industry)
Cargo Handled: Domestic and International (Airport Authority of India)
IP: Capital Goods (Central Statistical Organization)
PMI: Services Business Activity (HSBC/Markit)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=13

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2013 indicator releases:
www.conference-board.org/data/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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