Global Business Cycle Indicators

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If you would like to obtain the Brazil LEI database,
please contact indicators@conference-board.org

Press Release Archive

Released: Friday, January 17, 2014

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This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes. These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data, but do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
For more information, please visit our website at http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact indicators@conference-board.org .

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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), increased 0.9 percent in December. The index now stands at 127.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decline in November and a 0.1 increase in October. Five of the eight components contributed positively to the index in December.

Download a PDF of the press release in Portuguese.

“Strengthened expectations in the manufacturing and services sectors, coupled with a moderately improving global economy, contributed to the LEI’s increase in December,” said Paulo Picchetti, Economist at FGV/IBRE. “But given the sluggish stock market, subdued consumers’ expectations, and monetary policy decisions designed to counteract inflation, only a modest recovery is likely in the first half of 2014.”

Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board, added, “The small increase in the LEI over the last six months suggests that the weak performance of the Brazilian economy seen throughout 2013 has been abating. We project economic growth to stabilize and even improve slightly in the early part of this year.”

TCB/FGV Brazil LEI aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas

TCB/FGV Brazil LEI was launched in July 2013. Plotted back to 1996, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of Brazil. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The eight components of TCB/FGV Brazil LEI include:

Swap Rate, 1 year (Source: Central Bank of Brazil)
Stock Price Bovespa Index (Source: BOVESPA – Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo/ São Paulo Stock Exchange)
Manufacturing Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Services Sector Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Consumer Expectations Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Physical Production of Durables Consumer Goods Index (Source: IBGE – Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística/ Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics)
Terms of Trade Index (Source: FUNCEX – Fundação Centro de Estudos do Comércio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)
Exports Volume Index (Source: FUNCEX – Fundação Centro de Estudos do Comércio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)

www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=12

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2014 indicator releases:
www.conference-board.org/data/.

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States of America.
www.conferenceboard.org

ABOUT FGV/IBRE

The Brazilian Institute of Economics (Instituto Brasilieiro de Economia—IBRE) at Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV) was founded in 1951 to research, analyse, produce and disseminate macroeconomic statistics and applied studies. Its purpose is to inform and help improve public policies and private activities in the Brazilian economy. IBRE is a leading institute in calculating the Brazilian GDP and producing price indices including the General Price Index (IGP) which served  as Brazil´s official inflation index for many years. In addition to price indices, IBRE prepares trend and business cycle indicators that are widely used by administrators and analysts.
www.fgv.br/ibre   

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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