Global Business Cycle Indicators
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, December 13, 2013
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), decreased 0.3 percent in November. The index now stands at 125.8 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in October and a 0.6 percent increase in September. Two of the eight components contributed positively to the index in November.
Download a PDF of the press release in Portuguese.
Said Paulo Picchetti, Economist at FGV/IBRE, “The negative signal, which was conveyed by the Leading Economic Index in the first half of 2013, was confirmed in the third quarter’s drop in the Brazilian GDP. The slight fall in the LEI in November –coming after three consecutive gains –coupled with the uncertainties conditioning the materialization of positive consumer and industrial sector expectations, is consistent with the cautiously optimistic notion that a recovery will be modest in the rest of 2013 into the beginning of 2014.”
Jing Sima, Economist at The Conference Board, added, “The improvements in the LEI in the third quarter did not continue in November, although the pace of the recent decline in its growth rate has moderated. The financial indicators along with service sector expectations and exports all showed disappointing results this month, suggesting that the outlook for a recovery in economic activity into 2014 will be modest, perhaps even rocky.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), which measures current economic activity, was unchanged in November at 129.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in October and a 0.1 percent decrease in September. Three of the six components contributed positively to the index in November.
TCB/FGV Brazil LEI aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas
TCB/FGV Brazil LEI was launched in July 2013. Plotted back to 1996, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of Brazil. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The eight components of TCB/FGV Brazil LEI include:
Swap Rate, 1 year (Source: Central Bank of Brazil)
Stock Price Bovespa Index (Source: BOVESPA – Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo/ São Paulo Stock Exchange)
Manufacturing Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Services Sector Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Consumer Expectations Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Physical Production of Durables Consumer Goods Index (Source: IBGE – Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística/ Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics)
Terms of Trade Index (Source: FUNCEX – Fundação Centro de Estudos do Comércio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)
Exports Volume Index (Source: FUNCEX – Fundação Centro de Estudos do Comércio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2013 indicator releases:
ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a
non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States of America.
The Brazilian Institute of Economics (Instituto Brasilieiro de Economia—IBRE) at Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV) was founded in 1951 to research, analyse, produce and disseminate macroeconomic statistics and applied studies. Its purpose is to inform and help improve public policies and private activities in the Brazilian economy. IBRE is a leading institute in calculating the Brazilian GDP and producing price indices including the General Price Index (IGP) which served as Brazil´s official inflation index for many years. In addition to price indices, IBRE prepares trend and business cycle indicators that are widely used by administrators and analysts.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.