Global Business Cycle Indicators
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, September 18, 2013
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), increased 0.9 percent in August. The index now stands at 125.2 (2004 = 100), following a 2.2 percent decrease in July and a 0.3 percent decrease in June. Five of the eight components contributed positively to the index in August.
“Relatively strong GDP growth of 6 percent (annualized) in the second quarter is unlikely to hold up,” said Paulo Picchetti, Economist at FGV/IBRE. “The behavior of LEI over recent months is consistent with a considerable slowdown for the third quarter. Subsequently, the slight pickup in the August LEI may be an early sign that growth will rebound in the last quarter of 2013. Any expected recovery, however, rests on a number of uncertainties in both the domestic and global growth scenarios.”
Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board, added, “A pickup in consumer and service sector expectations drove the LEI higher in August after four consecutive declines. The improvement points to a relative diminishing of risk factors for the economy, but widespread weaknesses among the LEI’s components so far this year suggest that a significant growth revival is unlikely in the second half of 2013.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), which measures current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in August to 128.7 (2004 = 100), following no change in July and a 0.2 percent increase in June, according to preliminary estimates. Three of the six components contributed positively to the index in August.
TCB/FGV Brazil LEI aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas
TCB/FGV Brazil LEI was launched in July 2013. Plotted back to 1996, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of Brazil. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The eight components of TCB/FGV Brazil LEI include:
Swap Rate, 1 year (Source: Central Bank of Brazil)
Stock Price Bovespa Index (Source: BOVESPA - Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo/ São Paulo Stock Exchange)
Manufacturing Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Services Sector Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Consumer Expectations Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Physical Production of Durables Consumer Goods Index (Source: IBGE – Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística/ Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics)
Terms of Trade Index (Source: FUNCEX – Fundação Centro de Estudos do Comércio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)
Exports Volume Index (Source: FUNCEX &nash; Fundação Centro de Estudos do Comércio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2013 indicator releases:
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