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Released: Thursday, August 15, 2013

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), decreased 1.8 percent in July. The index now stands at 124.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent decrease in June and a 0.9 percent decrease in May. Two of the eight components contributed positively to the index in July.

Download a PDF of the press release in Portuguese.

Paulo Picchetti, Economist at FGV/IBRE, says, “The LEI for Brazil decreased for the fourth consecutive month, but the degree of the decline so far suggests that a slowdown, as opposed to a recession, is more likely in the short term. Deteriorating consumer and business expectations, coupled with limited economic stimulus options, suggest that the likelihood of the Brazilian economy regaining its momentum is more conditioned on favorable developments in the international arena, rather than being domestically driven. The relative strength of LEIs for the United States and the Euro Area suggest the downside for the Brazilian economy may be limited in the near term.”

Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board, says, “The LEI for Brazil has decreased in five of the last six months, a result of sluggish financial markets and eroding manufacturing, services, and consumer expectations. The widespread and persistent weaknesses in both the LEI and CEI so far this year suggest that the pace of Brazil’s economic activity is likely to slow further in the months ahead.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), which measures current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in July to 128.9 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in June and a 0.5 percent decrease in May, according to preliminary estimates. Five of the six components contributed positively to the index in July.

TCB/FGV Brazil LEI aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas

TCB/FGV Brazil LEI was launched in July 2013. Plotted back to 1996, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of Brazil. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The eight components of TCB/FGV Brazil LEI include:

Swap Rate, 1 year (Source: Central Bank of Brazil)
Stock Price Bovespa Index (Source: BOVESPA - Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo/ São Paulo Stock Exchange)
Manufacturing Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Services Sector Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Consumer Expectations Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Physical Production of Durables Consumer Goods Index (Source: IBGE - Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística/ Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics)
Terms of Trade Index (Source: FUNCEX - Fundação Centro de Estudos do Comércio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)
Exports Volume Index (Source: FUNCEX - Fundação Centro de Estudos do Comércio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)

www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=12

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2013 indicator releases:
www.conference-board.org/data

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States of America.
www.conferenceboard.org

ABOUT FGV/IBRE

The Brazilian Institute of Economics (Instituto Brasilieiro de Economia—IBRE) at Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV) was founded in 1951 to research, analyse, produce and disseminate macroeconomic statistics and applied studies. Its purpose is to inform and help improve public policies and private activities in the Brazilian economy. IBRE is a leading institute in calculating the Brazilian GDP and producing price indices including the General Price Index (IGP) which served  as Brazil´s official inflation index for many years. In addition to price indices, IBRE prepares trend and business cycle indicators that are widely used by administrators and analysts.
www.fgv.br/ibre

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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