Global Business Cycle Indicators
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, July 17, 2013
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), decreased 0.6 percent in June. The index now stands at 126.5 (2004 = 100), following a 1.2 percent decrease in May and no change in April. Three of the eight components contributed positively to the index in June.
Download a PDF of the press release in Portuguese.
Paulo Picchetti, Economist at FGV/IBRE, says, “The fall in the LEI reflects the difficulties of the Brazilian economy’s ability to sustain growth, in the context of growing uncertainty regarding economic performance at home and abroad.”
Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board, says, “The LEI for Brazil has been moving sideways over the last year, but financial markets as well as consumer expectations are putting more downward pressure on the index. The LEI points to sluggish economic activity for the rest of 2013. The weakening of the Brazil LEI is in accordance with weakening leading indicators in China and India. The last time the LEI for Brazil fell by 2.3 percent over a sixmonth span was in August 2011 in the midst of an economic slowdown.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), which measures current economic activity, increased 0.2 percent in June to 128.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent decrease in May and a 0.8 percent increase in April, according to preliminary estimates. Four of the six components contributed positively to the index in June.
TCB/FGV Brazil LEI aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas
TCB/FGV Brazil LEI is launched in July 2013. Plotted back to 1996, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of Brazil. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The eight components of TCB/FGV Brazil LEI include:
Swap Rate, 1 year (Source: Central Bank of Brazil)
Stock Price Bovespa Index (Source: BOVESPA – Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo/ São Paulo Stock Exchange)
Manufacturing Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Services Sector Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Consumer Expectations Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Physical Production of Durables Consumer Goods Index (Source: IBGE – Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística/ Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics)
Terms of Trade Index (Source: FUNCEX – Fundação Centro de Estudos do Comércio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)
Exports Volume Index (Source: FUNCEX – Fundação Centro de Estudos do Comércio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2013 indicator releases:
ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States of America.
The Brazilian Institute of Economics (Instituto Brasilieiro de Economia—IBRE) at Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV) was founded in 1951 to research, analyse, produce and disseminate macroeconomic statistics and applied studies. Its purpose is to inform and help improve public policies and private activities in the Brazilian economy. IBRE is a leading institute in calculating the Brazilian GDP and producing price indices including the General Price Index (IGP) which served as Brazil´s official inflation index for many years. In addition to price indices, IBRE prepares trend and business cycle indicators that are widely used by administrators and analysts.
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