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Released: Wednesday, August 22, 2012

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for China increased 0.7 percent in July to 236.4 (2004 = 100), following no growth in June and a 1.1 percent increase in May. Two of the six components contributed positively to the index in July.

Download a PDF of the technical notes for underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs in Chinese.

Download a PDF of the press release in Chinese.

 

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for China increased 0.7 percent in July to 236.4 (2004 = 100), following no growth in June and a 1.1 percent increase in May. Two of the six components contributed positively to the index in July.

“The Conference Board LEI for China increased again in July,” says Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing. “The main driver was government loans to boost banks in financing infrastructure investment.” Falling prices gave an important boost to loan growth, as the latter was measured in real terms. The small increase in the CEI, a measure of current conditions, reflects some improvement in industrial production, retail sales and electricity production, suggesting that current economic conditions are stabilizing. Adds Polk: “Although other leading indicators, such as real estate, exports and consumer sentiment, remained weak through July, the leading and current indicators point to a modest rebound in the second half of 2012.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.8 percent to 222.5 (2004 = 100), following a 0.9 percent increase in June and a 0.6 percent increase in May. Four of the five components contributed positively to the index in July.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China 

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:

Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)

5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)

NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2012 indicator releases:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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