Global Business Cycle Indicators

China

Press Releases

Latest
Archive

Data

Purchase Data

Press Release Archive

Released: Monday, July 23, 2012

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 0.1 percent in June to 234.9 (2004 = 100), following a 1.1 percent increase in May and a 0.9 percent increase in April. Only one of the six components contributed positively to the index in June.

Download a PDF of the technical notes for underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs in Chinese.

Download a PDF of the press release in Chinese.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 0.1 percent in June to 234.9 (2004 = 100), following a 1.1 percent increase in May and a 0.9 percent increase in April. Only one of the six components contributed positively to the index in June.

Says Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing: “In June, the month-on-month growth rate of the China LEI slowed significantly with all components except bank loans declining. Overall, the short term trend in the leading economic index indicates that economic activity is still policy- and credit-led. Bank credit expansion has been the only consistently rising leading index component over the last six months. Coupled with slowing and volatile (month-on-month) growth in the CEI for China, the composite indexes suggest that the real economy is not showing any material rebound, and that this situation is likely to persist for several months to come. Until monetary loosening passes through to fuel real economic activity and boost private sector demand, the stabilization of the economy will remain tenuous.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.5 percent to 219.8 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in May and a 0.6 percent decline in April. Four of the five components contributed positively to the index in June.

The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China.

The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:

Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2012 indicator releases:
www.conference-board.org/data/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

Global Indicators

StraightTalk®

Straight Talk November 2013

StraightTalk® Global Economic Outlook 2014: Time to realize the opportunities for growth

From the Chief Economist

Strong Topline GDP Growth Overstates the Strength in the Economy

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis today reported 3.5 percent annualized growth in real Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter of 2014, which is above expectations ...

Read the article
Archives

  • Human Capital
  • Back to Top