Global Business Cycle Indicators
Press Release Archive
Released: Monday, June 25, 2012
**** DATE CHANGE -- IMPORTANT NOTICE about The Conference Board Leading Economic® Index for China
Due to the Dragon Boat Festival Holiday in China, the release date for The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China has been moved from Friday, June 22, 10:00 AM CST in Beijing (10 PM ET, June 21 in New York), to TUESDAY, June 26, 10 AM CST in Beijing, (10 PM ET, June 25 in New York). ****
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 1.1 percent in May to 235.1 (2004 = 100), following a 0.9 percent increase in April and a 0.8 percent increase in March. Five of the six components contributed positively to the index in May.
Download a PDF of the press release in Chinese.
Says Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing: “The China LEI rose in May, driven by the rebound in bank loans and real estate activity. While exports remain subdued, bank credit has picked up recently on fiscal and monetary policy measures designed to support growth and boost demand for loans. Current economic conditions, gauged by the CEI for China, improved somewhat from April, but the rate of growth so far this year has been tepid, and both consumer and producer prices fell sharply in May, suggesting weak domestic demand. Taken together, the economy will continue to face strong headwinds from the softness in both external and domestic demand, but the LEI signals a moderate growth rebound based on policy support.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.8 percent to 219.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent decline in April and a 0.6 percent increase in March. Four of the five components contributed positively to the index in May.
The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China.
The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:
Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
For more information including full press release and technical notes:
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2012 indicator releases:
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at
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