Global Business Cycle Indicators
Press Release Archive
Released: Monday, May 21, 2012
**** DATE CHANGE -- IMPORTANT NOTICE about The Conference Board Leading Economic® Index for China
Due to the Dragon Boat Festival Holiday in China, the release date for The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China has been moved from Friday, June 22, 10:00 AM CST in Beijing (10 PM ET, June 21 in New York), to TUESDAY, June 26, 10 AM CST in Beijing, (10 PM ET, June 25 in New York). ****
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 0.8 percent in April to 232.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.8 percent increase in March and a 1.0 percent increase in February. Four of the six components contributed positively to the index in April.
Download a PDF of the press release in Chinese.
Says Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing: “The China LEI in April once again sends a mixed message. While the composite index continued to increase, the strength in the underlying indicators was very much concentrated in bank loans and consumer sentiment. However, leading indicators in manufacturing and real estate sectors showed significant slowing in April. In contrast to the LEI, the coincident economic index for China, which looks at current economic conditions, fell for the second time in the last six months, with key indicators such as electricity production and industrial output declining. Thus, while the top line LEI growth continues to signal a moderate expansion ahead, the pattern of offsetting strengths and weaknesses among the underlying indicators suggests volatility and uncertainty, exacerbating weakening current conditions in the economy.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, declined 0.8 percent in April to 216.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in March and a 3.9 percent increase in February. Three of the five components contributed positively to the index in April.
The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China.
The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for China include:
Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
For more information including full press release and technical notes:
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2012 indicator releases:
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at
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