Global Business Cycle Indicators
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Next month's release will incorporate annual benchmark revisions to the composite indexes. These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data. The revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for China decreased 0.1 percent in October to 160.1 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in September and a 0.6 percent increase in August. Three of the six components contributed positively to the index in October.
- Download a PDF of the technical notes for underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs in Chinese.
- Download a PDF of the press release in Chinese.
Says The Conference Board China Center resident economist Andrew Polk: “The risk of a more substantive slowdown in China’s economic growth than anticipated so far is rising amid deteriorating external conditions and domestic real estate tightening. This is evidenced by the decline of the LEI for China coupled with the slower growth of the coincident economic index. Consumer expectations continued to decline, and the manufacturing and export indicators also contributed to the slight drop in the LEI in October. Targeted loosening of credit markets by the authorities should provide marginal aid to struggling enterprises in the coming months, but the pass through from previous policy tightening measures will continue to act as a brake on the economy.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in October to 207.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in September and a 0.4 percent increase in August. Three of the five components contributed positively to the index in October.
The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China.
The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:
Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
For more information including full press release and technical notes:
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2012 indicator releases:
* The series in The Conference Board LEI for China that is based on our estimates is the 5000 industry enterprises diffusion index: raw materials supply index. There are no series in The Conference Board CEI for China that are based on our estimates.
About The Conference Board
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