Global Business Cycle Indicators
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, September 20, 2011
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for China increased 0.6 percent in July to 158.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.9 percent increase in June and a 0.4 percent increase in May. Four of the six components contributed positively to the index in July.
- Download a PDF of the technical notes for underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs in Chinese.
- Download a PDF of the press release in Chinese.
Says Jing Sima, economist for The Conference Board: “July’s increase in the LEI for China signals a continuation of economic expansion through the end of this year. However, the strength in leading indicators has been concentrated in bank credit expansion and real estate investment so far this year, while the one-off effect from improved consumer expectations in June abated in July. Industrial output, employment, and consumer spending continued to drive the rising trend in the CEI, tracking current conditions for China through July, but their rate of growth has tapered off noticeably. Both the LEI and CEI for China suggest that the rate of economic growth will be slower in 2011 than last year.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.4 percent in July to 205.5 (2004 = 100), following a 1.2 percent increase in June and a 0.6 percent increase in May. Four of the five components contributed positively to the index in July.
The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for China
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China.
The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:
Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
For more information including full press release and technical notes:
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2011 indicator releases:
* There are no series in The Conference Board LEI for China that are based on our estimates. There are no series in The Conference Board CEI for China that are based on our estimates.
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.