Global Business Cycle Indicators
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, May 12, 2011
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for China increased 1.0 percent in March to 157.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in both February and January. Four of the six components contributed positively to the index in March.
- Download a PDF of the technical notes for underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs in Chinese.
- Download a PDF of the press release in Chinese.
Says The Conference Board China Center resident economist Bill Adams: “After two months of small increases, the large increase in the LEI for China in March points to continued economic expansion in 2011. Combined with an uptick in the coincident economic index, the leading indicators suggest that risks of a hard landing for China’s economy in 2011 may be easing. However, growth will likely remain slower than during the second half of 2010. In March, improving consumer expectations and construction activity offset slack in the manufacturing supply chain and declining export orders.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 1.6 percent in March to 199.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in both February and January. Three of the five components contributed positively to the index in March.
The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China.
The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:
Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
For more information including full press release and technical notes:
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2011 indicator releases:
* Due to a delay in the release of “The PBoC 5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index,” this series in The Conference Board LEI for China was estimated for September 2010 through March 2011. There are no series in The Conference Board CEI for China that is based on our estimates.
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.