Global Business Cycle Indicators
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, February 17, 2011
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China declined 0.5 percent in December to 154.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in November and a 0.8 percent increase in October. Three of the six components contributed positively to the index in December.
- Download a PDF of the technical notes for underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs in Chinese.
- Download a PDF of the press release in Chinese.
Says Jing Sima, economist for The Conference Board: “Both the LEI and CEI for China fell in December for the first time since 2008. Although the upward trend of each index is moderating, it is too early to tell if this will translate into a slowdown in economic activity. The Chinese economy is unlikely to accelerate sharply in the near term. While the construction and consumer sectors are weakening, growth in the industrial sector remains strong.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, decreased 0.5 percent in December to 196.8 (2004 = 100), following a 1.0 percent increase in November and a 0.2 percent increase in October. Three of the five components contributed positively to the index in December.
The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China.
The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:
Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
For more information including full press release and technical notes:
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2011 indicator releases:
* The series in The Conference Board LEI for China that is based on our estimates is the 5000 industry enterprises diffusion index: raw materials supply index. The series in The Conference Board CEI for China that is based on our estimates is manufacturing employment.
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.