Global Business Cycle Indicators
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, January 13, 2011
This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 0.5 percent in November to 155.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.8 percent increase in October and a 0.7 percent increase in September. Five of the six components contributed positively to the index in November.
- Download a PDF of the technical notes for underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs in Chinese.
- Download a PDF of the press release in Chinese.
Says Bill Adams, resident economist for The Conference Board China Center in Beijing: “Widespread strength in the LEI for China coupled with a strong gain in the CEI for China suggests continuing growth through the first half of 2011. November’s increase in the LEI for China reflects modest improvements in real estate offsetting ongoing consumer pessimism.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 1.1 percent in November to 197.9 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in October and a 0.8 percent increase in September. Four of the five components contributed positively to the index in November.
The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China.
The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:
Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
For more information including full press release and technical notes:
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2011 indicator releases:
* The series in The Conference Board LEI for China that is based on our estimates is the 5000 industry enterprises diffusion index: raw materials supply index. There is no series in The Conference Board CEI for China that is based on our estimates.
About The Conference Board
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