Global Business Cycle Indicators
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Next month's release will incorporate annual benchmark revisions to the composite indexes. These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data. The revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 0.9 percent in October to 152.1 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in September and a 0.7 percent increase in August. Five of the six components contributed positively to the index in October.
- Download a PDF of the technical notes for underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs.
- Download a PDF of the technical notes for underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs in Chinese.
- Download a PDF of the press release.
- Download a PDF of the press release in Chinese.
Says William Adams, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center for Economics and Business: “With October’s solid increase, the LEI for China continues to point to economic expansion into the first half of 2011. However, the consumer expectations component of the leading economic index remains weak in the face of high inflation. October’s slowdown in current economic conditions, as measured by the coincident economic index, will likely be short-lived in light of the leading indicators.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in October to 191.8 (2004 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in September and a 1.0 percent increase in August. Two of the five components contributed positively to the index in October.
The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China.
The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:
Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
For more information including full press release and technical notes:
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2011 indicator releases:
* The series in The Conference Board LEI for China that is based on our estimates is the 5000 industry enterprises diffusion index: raw materials supply index. The series in The Conference Board CEI for China that is based on our estimates is manufacturing employment.
About The Conference Board
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