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Released: Monday, August 16, 2010

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 0.8 percent in June to 147.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.9 percent increase in May and no change in April. Three of the six components contributed positively to the index in June.

“June’s increase in the China LEI signals continued moderate expansion in the second half of the year,” said Bill Adams, resident economist for The Conference Board China Center in Beijing. “The brisk rise in the CEI also shows an economy that is clearly settling into a post-stimulus growth dynamic. The LEI components show China’s export growth remaining relatively soft – no surprise in light of slowing demand from the United States, the Euro Area, and Japan – meaning domestic markets will offer the most dynamic business opportunities.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 1.0 percent in June to 186.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.9 percent increase in May and a 1.4 percent increase in April. Four of the five components contributed positively to the index this month.

The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China.  Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China.

The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:

Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)

5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)

NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2010 indicator releases:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/

* The series in The Conference Board LEI for China that is based on our estimates is the 5000 industry enterprises diffusion index: raw materials supply index. The series in The Conference Board CEI for China that is based on our estimates is manufacturing employment.

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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