Global Business Cycle Indicators
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, January 28, 2014
This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite indexes. Also, effective with the January 2014 release, the history of the composite indexes has been updated to reflect the inclusion of Latvia into the Euro Area. These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data. The revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area increased 0.6 percent in December and now stands at 109.9 (2004=100), following a 0.6 percent increase in November and a 0.5 percent increase in October.
“The LEI increased for the seventh consecutive month, signaling a continued brightening of the outlook for the Euro Area economy in early 2014,” says Bert Colijn, economist for Europe at The Conference Board. “Sentiment among businesses and consumers keeps improving as confidence in the recovery is picking up. However, even though the first half of 2014 looks promising, the lack of strong investment, high unemployment and low wage growth implies that the rate of economic growth will remain modest.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the Euro Area, which measures current economic activity, declined 0.1 percent in December, according to preliminary estimates. The index now stands at 101.1 (2004 = 100)*. The CEI increased 0.3 percent in November and decreased 0.1 percent in October.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area was launched in January 2009. Plotted back to 1987, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the business cycle of the bloc of countries that now constitute the Euro Area, defined by the common currency zone.
The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for twelve other individual countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the U.K., India, Brazil and the U.S.
The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area include:
Economic Sentiment Index (source: European Commission DG-ECFIN)
Index of Residential Building Permits Granted (source: Eurostat)
EURO STOXX® Index (source: STOXX Limited)
Money Supply (M2) (source: European Central Bank)
Interest Rate Spread (source: European Central Bank)
Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (source: Markit Economics)
Eurozone Service Sector Future Business Activity Expectations Index (source: Markit Economics)
To view The Conference Board calendar for 2014 indicator releases:
* Series in The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area that are based on The Conference Board estimates are real money supply and residential building permits. All series in The Conference Board CEI for the Euro Area are based on The Conference Board estimates (employment, industrial production, retail trade, and manufacturing turnover).
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.