Global Business Cycle Indicators
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, December 21, 2012
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area increased 0.6 percent in November and now stands at 105.3 (2004=100), after decreasing 0.3 percent in October and decreasing 0.2 percent in September.
“The increase in the Euro Area LEI suggests the short-term outlook has moderately improved,” says Bert Colijn, Economist for Europe with The Conference Board. “The improvements were widespread in November, with business and consumer confidence leading the way, in contrast to most recent months. The chances are increasing that the Euro Area may reverse its ongoing contraction sometime during the first half of 2013. However, downside risks remain high, with continuing budget cuts, political uncertainty, and low credit availability.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the Euro Area, which measures current economic activity, remained unchanged in November. The index now stands at 101.5 (2004 = 100) according to preliminary estimates*. The CEI decreased 0.2 percent in October and decreased 0.5 percent in September.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area was launched in January 2009. Plotted back to 1987, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the business cycle of the bloc of countries that now constitute the Euro Area, defined by the common currency zone.
The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for ten other individual countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the U.K. and the U.S.
The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area include:
Economic Sentiment Index (source: European Commission DG-ECFIN)
Index of Residential Building Permits Granted (source: Eurostat)
EURO STOXX® Index (source: STOXX Limited)
Money Supply (M2) (source: European Central Bank)
Interest Rate Spread (source: European Central Bank)
Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (source: Markit Economics)
Eurozone Service Sector Future Business Activity Expectations Index (source: Markit Economics)
To view The Conference Board calendar for 2013 indicator releases: www.conference-board.org/data/
* Series in The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area that are based on The Conference Board estimates are real money supply and residential building permits. All series in The Conference Board CEI for the Euro Area are based on The Conference Board estimates (employment, industrial production, retail trade, and manufacturing turnover).
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.