Global Business Cycle Indicators
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, July 27, 2012
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area decreased 0.3 percent in June, falling to 104.8 (2004=100), following decreases of 0.3 percent in May and 1.0 percent in April.
Said Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board Senior Economist for Europe: “The LEI for the Euro Area declined in June for a third consecutive month and has returned to where it was six months ago. The pace of contraction in the manufacturing sector has stabilized, but growth in industrial production remains very weak, even in core countries like Germany. Moreover, the pessimism about the prospects for recovery in the Euro Area economy has spread to the services sector where confidence has plunged. The leading indicators are consistent with a picture of very slow growth or even economic contraction for the remainder of the year, with risks tilted to the downside given the high level of uncertainty about the resolution to the current financial crisis.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the Euro Area, which measures current economic activity, was unchanged in June. The index now stands at 101.9 (2004 = 100) according to preliminary estimates*. The CEI remained unchanged in May and decreased 0.3 percent in April.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area was launched in January 2009. Plotted back to 1987, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the business cycle of the bloc of countries that now constitute the Euro Area, defined by the common currency zone.
The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for ten other individual countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the U.K. and the U.S.
Click here for further background information on The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the Euro Area.
The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area include:
Economic Sentiment Index (source: European Commission DG-ECFIN)
Index of Residential Building Permits Granted (source: Eurostat)
EURO STOXX® Index (source: STOXX Limited)
Money Supply (M2) (source: European Central Bank)
Interest Rate Spread (source: European Central Bank)
Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (source: Markit Economics)
Eurozone Service Sector Future Business Activity Expectations Index (source: Markit Economics)
To view The Conference Board calendar for 2012 indicator releases:
* Series in The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area that are based on The Conference Board estimates are real money supply and residential building permits. All series in The Conference Board CEI for the Euro Area are based on The Conference Board estimates (employment, industrial production, retail trade, and manufacturing turnover).
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.