Global Business Cycle Indicators
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, April 27, 2012
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area decreased 0.3 percent in March, falling to 105.0 (2004=100), following increases of 0.8 percent in February and 1.0 percent in January.
Said Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board Senior Economist for Europe: “The LEI for the Euro Area fell slightly in March after three consecutive gains. The waning influence of Long-Term Refinancing Operations on financial markets and weakening confidence in the manufacturing sector dragged the index down in March. However, economic activity in the Euro Area is still expected to return to a moderate expansion in the near term, even as austerity measures are taking their toll on domestic demand.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the Euro Area, which measures current economic activity, decreased 0.1 percent in March. The index stands at 102.3 (2004 = 100) according to preliminary estimates*. The CEI remained unchanged in February and January.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area was launched in January 2009. Plotted back to 1987, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the business cycle of the bloc of countries that now constitute the Euro Area, defined by the common currency zone.
The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for ten other individual countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the U.K. and the U.S.
Click here for further background information on The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the Euro Area.
The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area include:
Economic Sentiment Index (source: European Commission DG-ECFIN)
Index of Residential Building Permits Granted (source: Eurostat)
Index of Capital Goods New Orders (source: Eurostat)
EURO STOXX® Index (source: STOXX Limited)
Money Supply (M2) (source: European Central Bank)
Interest Rate Spread (source: European Central Bank)
Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (source: Markit Economics)
Eurozone Service Sector Future Business Activity Expectations Index (source: Markit Economics)
To view The Conference Board calendar for 2012 indicator releases:
Series in The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area that are based on The Conference Board estimates are real money supply, residential building permits, and new orders of capital goods. All series in The Conference Board CEI for the Euro Area are based on The Conference Board estimates (employment, industrial production, retail trade, and manufacturing turnover).
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
*****SPECIAL NOTICE: Eurostat has announced that it will stop producing data for new orders of capital goods, one of the components of the LEI for the Euro Area, in the next few months. The Conference Board is conducting research to find a suitable replacement for this series, and if possible, will incorporate the new series into the LEI by conducting a benchmark revision. This benchmark revision will be announced in advance. *****
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.