Global Business Cycle Indicators
Press Release Archive
Released: Monday, February 27, 2012
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for the Euro Area increased by 1.0 percent in January, rising to 104.1 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in December and a 0.1 percent decrease in November.
Said Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board Senior Economist for Europe: “The LEI for the Euro Area grew strongly in January, its second consecutive increase after trending down through November 2011. Leading indicators show that business, consumer, and financial-market confidence has improved following the December EU summit and the start of the ECB’s Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (LTROs). A fourth-quarter contraction in GDP and the contraction of the CEI for the Euro Area since August together illustrate the current weakness of the Euro Area economy as it muddles through the debt crisis. Still, for now, the balance of risks continues to improve, suggesting that the Euro Area may manage to contain the debt crisis and avoid a longer and deeper recession.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) for the Euro Area, which measures current economic activity, remained unchanged in January. The index stands at 102.6 (2004 = 100) according to preliminary estimates*. The CEI decreased 0.2 percent in December 2011 and was unchanged in November.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area was launched in January 2009. Plotted back to 1987, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the business cycle of the bloc of countries that now constitute the Euro Area, defined by the common currency zone.
The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for ten other individual countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the U.K. and the U.S.
Click here for further background information on The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the Euro Area.
The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area include:
Economic Sentiment Index (source: European Commission DG-ECFIN)
Index of Residential Building Permits Granted (source: Eurostat)
Index of Capital Goods New Orders (source: Eurostat)
EURO STOXX® Index (source: STOXX Limited)
Money Supply (M2) (source: European Central Bank)
Interest Rate Spread (source: European Central Bank)
Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (source: Markit Economics)
Eurozone Service Sector Future Business Activity Expectations Index (source: Markit Economics)
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2011 indicator releases:
* Series in The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area that are based on The Conference Board estimates are real money supply, residential building permits, and new orders of capital goods. All series in The Conference Board CEI for the Euro Area are based on The Conference Board estimates (employment, industrial production, retail trade, and manufacturing turnover).
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.