Global Business Cycle Indicators
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Next month's release will incorporate annual benchmark revisions to the composite indexes. These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data. The revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for the Euro Area remained unchanged in November, staying at 106.1 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent decrease in October and a 1.1 percent decrease in September.
Said Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board Senior Economist for Europe: "The LEI for the Euro Area was flat in November after three consecutive months of decline, but the six-month growth rate remains strongly negative. Its behavior suggests that the downturn in economic activity highlighted by the CEI for the Euro Area, our measure of current economic conditions, is likely to extend to the first half of 2012. But, the latest observations suggest that the recession in the Euro Area is likely to be short and shallow, provided that the persistent downside risks created by the volatile financial markets and policy uncertainties do not drag the economy down further."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) for the Euro Area, which measures current economic activity, remained unchanged in November. The index stands at 102.9 (2004 = 100) according to preliminary estimates*. The CEI was unchanged in October and decreased 0.4 percent in September.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for the Euro Area
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area was launched in January 2009. Plotted back to 1987, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the business cycle of the bloc of countries that now constitute the Euro Area, defined by the common currency zone.
The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for ten other individual countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the U.K. and the U.S.
Click here for further background information on The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the Euro Area.
The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area include:
Economic Sentiment Index (source: European Commission DG-ECFIN)
Index of Residential Building Permits Granted (source: Eurostat)
Index of Capital Goods New Orders (source: Eurostat)
EURO STOXX® Index (source: STOXX Limited)
Money Supply (M2) (source: European Central Bank)
Interest Rate Spread (source: ECB)
Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (source: Markit Economics)
Eurozone Service Sector Future Business Activity Expectations Index (source: Markit Economics)
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2011 indicator releases:
* Series in The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area that are based on The Conference Board estimates are real money supply, residential building permits, and new orders of capital goods. All series in The Conference Board CEI for the Euro Area are based on The Conference Board estimates (employment, industrial production, retail trade, and manufacturing turnover).
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.