Global Business Cycle Indicators
Press Release Archive
Released: Monday, June 29, 2009
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the Euro Area increased 1.9 percent in May to 95.4 (2004 = 100), following a 1.6 percent increase in April and no change in March. All of the components made positive contributions to the index this month.
Download a PDF of the press release with graph and summary table.
Said Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board Senior Economist for Europe: "With a second sharp rise in a row, the Euro Area LEI has moved out of recessionary territory. This improvement is reinforced by the recent first-time increases in the German, the French and the Spanish LEIs. The likelihood of reaching a trough in the current business cycle before the end of the year has clearly increased."
The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area has increased by 3.9 percent in 2009 after falling more than 15.0 percent between June 2007 and December 2008. Meanwhile, The Conference Board Coincident Economic IndexTM (CEI) for the Euro Area, a measure of current economic activity, declined by 0.1 percent in May, falling to 101.6 (2004 = 100), according to preliminary estimates*, after falling 0.4 percent in both April and March. The Conference Board CEI for the Euro Area has been trending downward since February 2008.
The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area aggregates eight economic indicators that measure activity in the Euro Area as a whole (rather than indicators of individual member countries), each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the Euro Area
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ for the Euro Area was launched in January 2009. Plotted back to 1987, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the business cycle of the bloc of countries that now constitute the Euro Area, defined by the common currency zone.
The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for nine other individual countries, including the U.S., the U.K., Germany, France, Spain, Japan, Australia, Korea and Mexico.
Click here for further background information on The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the Euro Area.
The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ for the Euro Area include:
Economic Sentiment Index (source: European Commission DG-ECFIN)
Index of Residential Building Permits Granted (source: Eurostat)
Index of Capital Goods New Orders (source: Eurostat)
Dow Jones EURO STOXX® Index (source: STOXX Limited)
Money Supply (M2) (source: European Central Bank)
Interest Rate Spread (source: ECB)
Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (source: Markit Economics)
Eurozone Service Sector Future Business Activity Expectations Index (source: Markit Economics)
Click here for The Conference Board calendar of 2009 indicator releases.
* Series in The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area that are based on The Conference Board estimates are real money supply, residential building permits and new orders of capital goods. All series in The Conference Board CEI for the Euro Area are based on The Conference Board estimates (employment, industrial production, retail trade and manufacturing turnover).
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business-membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance AND better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.