Pre-Conference Workshops:

Business Scenario Planning Workshop
June 24, 2013

Business Scenario Planning Workshop
Energy Volatility–Plausible Futures

Energy is an increasingly important input cost for firms, and for energy-intensive firms it is a very critical item in competitive positioning. Volatility in pricing resulting from fluctuations in demand and supply, especially unexpected, can put significant pressure on a firm’s performance or provide the conditions for a competitive edge.

This 4 hour interactive workshop will focus on the key drivers influencing volatility in energy pricing–what are they, what are key uncertainties, and what plausible futures do firms have to prepare for? Such questions have become particularly poignant with the emergence of shale gas as an abundant domestic supply in the US.

Key drivers to consider in the workshop span a wide range:

1. The supply of natural gas. The assessment of shale gas and shale oil reserves in the US and abroad, the boom-bust cycle in gas exploration and its effect on pricing, the temporary limits of the current gas supply and distribution infrastructure, the responses of the local and state governments to the environmental impact of drilling and transport, and extent to which gas in the form of LNG will be exported.

2. Mix in energy demand. The demand for energy in power plants, industry, commercial and residential buildings, and transportation, as well as technological developments affecting the mix of energies in use.

3. Efficiency of energy use. Increasing energy efficiency of households and decreasing energy-intensity of the manufacturing and services sectors.

4. Economic growth. Economic growth in the US as well as emerging markets–a sluggish recovery in the US will affect demands for energy and affect firms’ decisions regarding energy inputs–postpone technological innovation significantly reducing energy use vs. using cheaper energy/lower energy-intensity as a way to lower prices of products and services. Emerging markets will have an increased demand for energy even if they can benefit from new, more efficient technologies.

5. Environmental impact. The calculations at a national and international level regarding climate change, the acceptable limits of greenhouse gas emissions, and the ways to achieve these–will the political system be unable to address these and refrain from policies, will Congress agree in economics-driven policies through Cap & Trade or Emission Tax, or will the executive branch use existing laws to regulate emissions, in particular of power plants?

This workshop can also be attended in conjunction with the Business Scenario Program. 

For speaking and sponsorship opportunities, please contact Kimberly Byer-Clark at kimberly.byer-clark@conferenceboard.org.